South Africans have spent the last couple of months getting terrorised by politicians via email, sms and phone, and now, voting day has finally arrived.
According to the findings of the final election poll by the Institute of Race Relations, we may be in for some surprises.
The findings state that on a 70% turnout (which is the most likely figure, based on previous elections) the results will show the ANC at 53%, the DA at 24% and the EFF at 14%.
The IRR poll also shows that the ANC will lose its outright majority in both Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal, unless the party receives any ‘last minute surge’ in support.
The DA, likewise, has expressed concerns about holding the Western Cape – largely thanks to the mismanagement of the Cape Town water crisis and the poor handling of the Patricia De Lille debacle. The IRR poll, however, shows that the DA will hold the province quite comfortably.
Speaking on the 2019 elections, the IRR said:
It’s worth noting that, since 2014, the DA is also up among black voters, but down on white voters. The ANC has plummeted in coloured voters.
Presented in a graph created by BusinessTech, here are the results from the IRR final poll, based on a 70% turnout:
These results, of course, are not a prediction, but only serve to provide us with some insight into how South African voters have been feeling. As the IRR itself has put it, the art of prediction is left up to you, the public.
The IRR poll is only one among many that have been published this year, and in the past, these polls have proven to be quite accurate. The Ipsos poll results in 2016, for example, came within a percentage point of the final results for all parties.
All polls paint a similar picture: a steep drop in support (but still an overall win) for the ANC, flat to negative support for the DA, and a significant gain for the EFF.
Then, of course, the African Transformation Movement (ATM) has been making waves this last week due to speculations that uBaba ka Duduzane, Jacob Zuma, has links to the aptly-acronymed party. They’re unlikely to enjoy too many votes, though, as memories of Zuma using South Africa as his own personal ATM are still too tender to bear.
So! We can speculate all we want, but only the results will confirm how South Africa will be governed going forward. The final election results are expected to be announced on Saturday, 11 May, 2019.
Let’s take a quick look at some of those details.
International voters have already cast their ballots at voting stations around the world on 27 April. On Monday, 6 May, special voting opened to some small cases of violence and protesting (the Eastern Cape, KZN and North-West, in particular, experienced cars being set on fire, people being robbed and pelted with stones and voting material being damaged) but was deemed an overall success.
Because this is how we measure success in South Africa now – by how few people get robbed.
Special voting, for those who don’t know, has been made available to those who are unable to travel to a regular voting station due to being physically frail, disabled, pregnant, and a number of other valid reasons.
As stated above, the election results are expected to be announced on Saturday, 11 May, 2019, from the recently-launched National Results Operation Centre in Pretoria.
All major general news outlets will cover the elections throughout the day, with live feeds from the results centre. These dedicated portals can be found here:
Official results will be available from the IEC directly:
Once the results are announced, the first sitting of the new national assembly has been set for 22 May 2019, where new members of parliament will be sworn in. The president of the country will also be elected at this sitting.
The first sitting of the new National Council of Provinces has been set for the following day, the 23rd, and the presidential inauguration is scheduled to take place on 25 May, at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Pretoria.